Fossil-fuel emissions hit yet another all-time high in 2022. That news, though depressing, was totally expected because fossil-fuel emissions have been rising steadily since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. Why would it be any different?
But it is about to be different. An April 12 report called “Global Electricity Review 2023” by energy think tank EMBER projects that fossil-fuel emissions from power generation, the world’s largest source of CO2 emissions, are hitting a very important milestone — their historical peak — as we speak. We’ve heard so much about negative climate “tipping points” lately, and with good reason, but we are finally racing toward a positive one for a change!
Right here, right now in 2023, global fossil-fuel emissions from power generation are expected to decrease for the first time since the Fossil Fuel Era began in the 19th century for a reason other than recession, COVID, etc. And that reason is a pretty terrific one: Clean electricity generation has caught on so solidly and sustainably that henceforth it will simply expand faster than overall electricity demand. It isn’t merely feelgood messaging any longer; now it’s simple economics. It can’t be stopped.
Solar and wind are the two fastest-growing energy sectors, having expanded an amazing 24% and 17% in 2022, and they are expected to keep expanding at similar rates. When you take account of the scale they have obtained, these absolute increases will now be faster than the increase in overall power demand. That’s a technological tipping point right there:
The crucial thing is, before a tipping point, the force in the system is trying to hold back the transition. You've got people finding that the older technology is still more convenient or more attractive or cheaper. And it takes real effort to try and help the new technology grow and establish itself.
But beyond the tipping point, actually, it's reversed and the momentum is with the new technology. It's growing fast, and it's benefiting from these really strong, reinforcing feedbacks – the more people buy it, the more people invest in it, its cost comes down, it improves, and then more people want to buy it, and this keeps going around and around. Once you're past that tipping point, the transition tends to accelerate.
And that’s where solar and wind find themselves right now. New solar and wind power are not only cheaper than new coal and gas power, but they’re cheaper than even existing fossil-fuel burning. Think about that for a second. These are very new and extraordinary realities, and they put us in a pretty astonishing place.
Take a good look around, because the world will never again emit as much CO2 from fossil-fuel power generation as it does right now. This is the peak. We stand at the end of the Fossil-Fuel Power Era and at the beginning of the Clean Power Era.
Ember predicts that the first fall in fossil generation will happen in 2023. This is based on the assumption that 2023 will see the average percentage growth rate of the last ten years for electricity demand (+2.5%, +726 TWh), wind and solar generation (+19%, +641 TWh), and other clean power (+1.7%, +132 TWh). This would lead fossil generation to a small fall of 47 TWh (-0.3%) in 2023.
If present trends continue, we are on our way to net-zero electricity generation by 2040. I’m 54 now, so that means by the time I am 71. Let me get personal for just a minute. I’ve lost 14 pounds since Feb. 1, my “prediabetic”A1C numbers have begun to decrease, and I’ve recently been told by doctors that my heart and autoimmune issues are under control. That means I plan to be around to witness this, along with my two kids, ages 18 and 15, finding their way in this world. My daughter just committed to the University of Michigan (Go Blue!) this fall to study political science and public policy, and learn from what Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has done in that state, and I’ve no doubt my son will follow in his elder sibling’s footsteps and similarly find his place in mechanical engineering. I’ve got a big stake in seeing this world get things right.
Remember the RWNJ reaction to the phasing out of incandescent light bulbs? For all that Sturm und Drang, I want you to go to Home Depot and tell me if you can find a single incandescent bulb on their shelves. You can’t. You know why? Because the simple reality is that they suck, and NO ONE, not even the most MAGAfied, wants them anymore. Empty G can go on railing about climate change being fake news, but she is 2023’s Michele Bachmann, and her ass ain’t invited to the party. A decade from now, she’ll be silly irrelevant.
Let me just pick out some other nuggets from this report (emphases mine):
- The carbon intensity of global electricity generation fell to a record low of 436 g CO2/kWh in 2022, the cleanest-ever electricity. This was due to record growth in wind and solar, which reached a 12% share in the global electricity mix, up from 10% in 2021. Together, all clean electricity sources (renewables and nuclear) reached 39% of global electricity, a new record high. Solar generation rose by 24%, making it the fastest-growing electricity source for 18 years in a row; wind generation grew by 17%.
- The growth alone in wind and solar generation (+557 TWh) met 80% of global electricity demand growth in 2022 (+694 TWh). Clean power growth is likely to exceed electricity demand growth in 2023; this would be the first year for this to happen outside of a recession. With average growth in electricity demand and clean power, we forecast that 2023 will see a small fall in fossil generation (-47 TWh,-0.3%), with bigger falls in subsequent years as wind and solar grow further. That would mean 2022 hit “peak” emissions. A new era of falling power sector emissions is close.
- 2022 will be remembered as a turning point in the world’s transition to clean power. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine made many governments rethink their plans amid spiking fossil fuel prices and security concerns about relying on fossil fuel imports. It also accelerated electrification: more heat pumps, more electric vehicles, more electrolysers. These will drive reductions in emissions for other sectors, and will put more pressure to build clean power more quickly.
- Solar and wind are changing the electricity mix in every region of the world. Europe started that shift earliest, and has been leading throughout this century. However, recently Europe has been overtaken by Oceania, mostly due to rapid growth in Australia. North America also started wind and solar deployment early and has been ahead of the global average. Asia started later, but is catching up fast, and is now almost at the world average.
- What is clear is that solar and wind are on track to have a massive presence in the global power mix. They will without question fundamentally change the global electricity system. As with any rapid change, problems and opportunities abound.
- As soon as 2023, wind and solar could push the world into a new era of falling fossil generation, and therefore of falling power sector emissions. The fall will be small in 2023, but it will get bigger every year as wind and solar grow further, which could mean power sector emissions will never peak higher than they did in 2022.
Make no mistake, the relentless messaging on the need to decrease carbon emissions has been the key catalyst. That’s why we’ve had the will to get ourselves into a position to turn it around. Now we’re arriving at a place where economic forces and political will make the changes inevitable, no matter how anyone tries to spin it.
I know there are still many hurdles ahead, but I’m starting to get the feeling that there’s a chance it can all come together. When we reach a positive milestone like this one, we need to step back and acknowledge and appreciate it. Maybe we do have a shot to get it done. Maybe we won’t let future generations down after all. Maybe there’s room once again for optimism. Maybe this is indeed where the turnaround begins. Let me dream, will you?